Discussion Paper No.5
Accounting for South Africa's Successful Transition to
Democracy
Laurie Nathan (DRC, DESTIN)
June 2004
Revolutions always seem impossible before they happen and inevitable afterwards.
The same is true of negotiated settlements to end civil wars. South Africans,
now accustomed to constitutional rule, tend to regard their settlement as
pre-ordained but this was certainly not the case. The negotiations were
repeatedly wracked by crises of various kinds. Shortly before the first
democratic election in 1994, the level of violence was so high and conservative
parties were so opposed to the settlement that free and fair elections seemed
improbable. At that time the country appeared to be at the edge of an abyss. The
aim of this paper is to identify the reasons for South Africa’s successful
transition to democracy, through a conjunction of favourable factors: political;
leadership; process; institutional; and social and structural.
Other Crisis States papers by Laurie Nathan:
Working Paper
No.50 (July 2004)
The Absence of Common Values and Failure of Common Security in Southern
Africa, 1992-2003
(Laurie Nathan)
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