Title : Electoral Behaviour Trends and Decentralisation in Colombia's Municipalities, 1988-2000
Working Paper No : 57 (series 1)
Author(s) : Diana Hoyos & Marcela Ceballos
Date : December 2004
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Abstract:
This study examines trends in
electoral behaviour in relation to the process of
decentralisation in Colombian municipalities. Through a
statistical analysis, it attempts to explain the relationship
between the variables of level of participation, effective
number of parties, level of decentralisation, degree of
socio-economic development, and levels of violence. The analysis
of these aspects allows an identification of the direct or
indirect effects of political decentralisation upon local
electoral democracy. The principle thesis of the study is that
electoral variables cannot be explained purely in terms of
decentralisation; but nevertheless, along with the above
mentioned factors, these have a relative influence over the
observed trends in the formal political system. It is worth
highlighting from the findings two aspects: firstly, that for
Colombian municipalities as a whole, the hypothesis that fiscal
decentralisation acts as an incentive for the formation of new
political movements, competing for public resources, has not
been proved; and secondly, that armed conflict and violence have
negative effects for the exercising of the right to vote.
Political control through armed means becomes consolidated
through direct influence over voters; or degenerates in
confrontations between distinct armed groups, which impedes
political participation through institutional channels.