Working Paper No.47
A Geography of Illicit Crops (Coca Leaf) and Armed Conflict
in Colombia
Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez
CEDE, Universidad de los Andes
July 2004
Colombia is currently the world’s
largest producer of coca leaf and the principal producer of opium poppies in the
Americas; the plants are the basic raw materials used to produce cocaine and
heroin. This document analyses the current relationship between these crops and
illegal armed groups in Colombia, using the hypothesis that the geographical
intensification of the conflict is the principal cause of expanding illicit crop
production. This relationship was analysed using a theoretical model, in which
an interaction between illegal armed activity and strategic territorial control
lead to cocaine production. Spatial analysis techniques were then applied,
especially spatial association indicators; and a clear spatial dynamic was
observed, related to the two aspects mentioned above. Non-parametric exercises
were also carried out using matching estimators, to determine the effect illegal
armed groups have on coca crops, and also to analyse the efficiency of aerial
eradication policies. The results suggest that a large percentage of coca
production in Colombia is due to the effects of illegal armed activity. We
therefore conclude that the expansion of illegal crop growing is a consequence
of the expanding conflict. In contrast, coca crops can only be used to explain a
small part of the armed conflict in Colombia. In addition, we found that crop
eradication via aerial spraying has not been an efficient tool in the fight
against coca production in the country.
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